經濟筆記: 貿易赤字的正反兩面(一)
貿易赤字的害處:
1) 傳統理論: 貿易赤字不利經濟 -> AD declines.
2) 道德風險: Balance of Payment (BP) = Current Account (CA) + Captial Account (FA). BP = 0. 故貿易赤字意味更多 captial inflow 和國際債務. 這可能引起道德風險: 政府以印銀鈔和通脹來應付債務. 見下圖:
假設: (a) 政府有增加貨幣供應的誘因. (b) IS 和 AD 已向左移,反映貿赤的影響. 但未有繪畫出來,以免做成混亂. (c) 實際的貨幣供應(MS/P)是 fixed 的. Money Supply 增加, Price Level 也會增加. (d) Price Rigidity 在此不存在. 處理 Price Rigidity 的過程太麻煩,留待日後討論.
綜觀之,貿易赤字會導致: Aggregate Demand (AD) decreases, Price Level increases, Money Supply increases. 國際市場對本土貨幣的需求減少,因此該國的貨幣匯率貶值.
Something about inflation: In fact, inflation is an enormous boon to any debtor, including the government. If the government owes a trillion dollars and inflation is at a rate of 10% per year, then in the course of a year the real value of government debt is reduced by 10% of 1 trillion (or $100 billion). That $100 billion is government revenue, just as surely as $100 billion raised in taxes is government revenue. ("The Armchair Economist", written by Steven E. Landsburg, p. 110)
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